EIA Distorts Energy Forecasts, Part 2

EIA Distorts Energy Forecasts, Part 2

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is providing misinformation to Americans in support of cutting CO2 emissions and promoting renewables.

The following is another example of how the EIA is making unsubstantiated, misleading claims.

Chart from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018, issued February 2018

In this chart, EIA forecasts that PV solar, rooftop installations, will account for 200,000,000 KW of installed capacity by 2050.

The average single, family-owned home requires about 8KW of installed PV solar capacity.

There are approximately 75,000,000 such homes in the United States, of these, using 8KW for the average installation, 25,000,000 will have installed PV rooftop solar according to the EIA forecast.

This is 33% of all single-family homes in the United States.

On the face of it, this is an absurd number of installations.

In essence, it says that virtually every single family home in the Southern US would have PV rooftop solar installed.

While the cost of solar panels could come down, the cost of inverters and the physical installation won’t decrease by very much.

Based on current costs, without subsidies, and the price of electricity, only Southern California (8 years) and Hawaii (3 years) require fewer than ten years to recover the cost of installing PV rooftop solar.

Here are some other break-even calculations for various states, showing the number of years it takes to recover the cost of installing PV rooftop solar. (From Nothing to Fear)

Alabama 18, Arizona 10, Arkansas 23, Colorado 14, Florida 11, Georgia 15, New Mexico 11, Texas 15 and Louisiana 19.

These PV rooftop solar systems are supposed to last about twenty years.

Any PV rooftop solar installed today will probably be replaced at least once by 2050.

In addition, it should be noted that the roofs themselves need to be replaced every twenty years or so. Replacing roofs will require removal and reinstallation of the PV rooftop solar system unless the two events take place simultaneously.

According to the EIA, AEO 2018, “Social influences will contribute to the continued adoption of residential photovoltaic (PV).”

This infers government forcing the adoption of PV solar by propaganda and intimidation using the fear of global warming.

It should be noted that the EIA, AEO 2018 makes similar unsubstantiated claims with regard to the use of energy by industry.

The EIA is a rogue agency that the Department of Energy must get under control.
As it stands today, no one should believe anything published by the EIA in its energy forecasts.

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2 Replies to “EIA Distorts Energy Forecasts, Part 2”

  1. What occurs with that predicted PV growth rate when:
    1) Power companies charge a (reasonable) monthly transmission fee to all customers, regardless of their monthly power use, to pay for company infrastructure?
    2) Power companies are NOT required to purchase individual’s PV power at market rate, but have the OPTION of buying it at wholesale rates, when they need it?
    3) Residential customers learn that to fully use excess PV power produced during daylight, they must also purchase expensive battery back-up?