Battery-Powered Vehicle Status

Battery-Powered Vehicle Status

The major headlines from the latest sales report are:

  • Sales of PHEVs continued their decline in the third quarter.
  • Sales of BEVs also declined in the third quarter, but so did all light vehicle sales.
  • YTD sales of BEVs continued at less than 1.5% of light vehicle sales.

Since their inception, BEVs have never reached 1.5% of total light vehicle sales in any year in the United States.

This is a dismal record for a technology that was supposed to sweep the country … eventually.

With the advent of a plethora of new BEV models, and with Germany mandating that BEVs must replace all new light vehicle sales by 2030, US sales of BEVs might still increase. 

It’s not known whether the German car manufacturers will continue to make internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in the United States, but it would seem they will have to continue making them or forego the North American car market. 

However, this will be a huge burden since the supporting industries for R&D and for ICE engines and accessories may have been dismantled in Germany.

Germany will truly be at a crossroads over the next few years.

German car manufacturers sold 3.5 million vehicles in Germany in 2018 and another 1.4 million in the United States, of which around 500,000 were imported. Over 25% of German car sales were in the United States.

If they dismantle their ICE suppliers in Germany they will not be able to export cars to the US. Will they have a supplier network in the US to support ICE sales here?

GM, Ford and Chrysler could be major beneficiaries of Germany’s plan to end the manufacture of ICE vehicles.

From an economic viewpoint, the cost of batteries for BEVs must come down from around $200 per kWh to below $80 per kWh for BEVs to be competitive with gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, and this isn’t likely to happen for the next several years. See, Economics of Battery-Powered Vehicles 

Subsidies could help BEV sales even though they are not economically competitive.

It would appear that a crunch time is coming for BEVs.

. . .

 

4 Replies to “Battery-Powered Vehicle Status”

  1. I have been a fan of your ever since we sat at same table in Monday investment club in TheVillages
    RE: Tesla I have a grand son working for Tesla. He was the lead engineer for the race they recently ran in Germany with Porsche. While in college he worked two semesters for Toyota and one semester for Audi in Germany.
    Keep up the good work.

    • Many thanks Bill. Great to hear from you.
      Let me know if I am missing anything with respect to BEVs. You may have some information I don’t have.

      • I have an information that you probably also have: Mazda is rolling out car with the SkyActiv-X. They’re serious about that new ICE, mass production, even in Europe. Competitors will come with something better soon. Now about pickup trucks and long-haul trucks, we might see in the near future the coming back of opposed-pistons engine. Achates Power and other companies are making real progress.

        • The Mazda SkyActiv-X is an ICE vehicle, and, unless the Germans change their minds, won’t be allowed to be built in Germany. Not sure about France etc.
          It will be interesting to see how Achates Power advances their design. It’s an ICE vehicle, so is up against the current trend against their use. But, if it can reduce emissions and improve efficiency it could be a player, at least until the climate change issue is sorted out.
          Thanks for your comments.

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